Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ddebd97e0484d8e3daa41e62bd15a535f13699751a52249243f71263d3ffc45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,243 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed No | 0c | 4,067$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…3831backed Yes | 32c | 3,150$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 2,942$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,181$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.9 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 75c | 2,084$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.7 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…e602backed No | 68c | 1,580$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…7f27backed No | 68c | 1,570$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 78c | 1,312$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed No | 71c | 761.27$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 77c | 740.35$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.82 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 21c | 701.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.97 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 43c | 649.63$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 557.07$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 535.47$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 511.65$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.82 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 70c | 469.97$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.98 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 54c | 449.37$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 442.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 423.92$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 22c | 387.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.11 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 380.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 365.59$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.62 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 357.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 353.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 36c | 313.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 304.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 66c | 294.38$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 291.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…8da5backed Yes | 41c | 290.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 49c | 287.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 270.81$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 43c | 266.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 36c | 266.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 260.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 49c | 239.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 53c | 238.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 238.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 22c | 234.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 56c | 231.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 26c | 229.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 21c | 225.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 38c | 223.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 219.47$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 77c | 215.29$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 49c | 214$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 213$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 208.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…d12abacked Yes | 29c | 206.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 203.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 24c | 200.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 14c | 199.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 30c | 198.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 25c | 195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 23c | 184.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 12c | 184.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…b3cdbacked Yes | 24c | 181.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 175$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 30c | 164$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 68c | 159.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 153.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 150.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 23c | 148.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 147.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 147$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 77c | 142.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 22c | 142.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…524cbacked Yes | 32c | 142$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked Yes | 46c | 141.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 9c | 140.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…f2d7backed Yes | 20c | 137.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 27c | 134.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 58c | 128.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 21c | 119.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…4194backed Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 26c | 111.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 23c | 110.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 108$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 75c | 107.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 69c | 106.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 34c | 104.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3af…286ebacked Yes | 31c | 104$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…8e02backed No | 68c | 103$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 102.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 39c | 101.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 28c | 101.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…c1c8backed Yes | 79c | 100.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…6525backed Yes | 40c | 99.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 78c | 99.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 98.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 96.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 30c | 89.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.