Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7be040b5af1bef7888aa8f69081813ab57a3ef4ec4a0531e1ebed305de64b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64cf…dd08backed Yes | 0c | 8,116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c1…30b8backed Yes | 24c | 4,012$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,991$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c64…e2c3backed Yes | 24c | 3,974$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…cde3backed Yes | 24c | 2,686$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…7065backed No | 76c | 1,366$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…a953backed No | 76c | 1,365$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…97ddbacked No | 76c | 1,336$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…7815backed No | 76c | 1,325$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…6cf6backed No | 76c | 1,322$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…aa4abacked No | 76c | 1,322$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569c…228ebacked No | 76c | 1,320$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…2cdfbacked No | 76c | 1,310$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 446.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 411.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 12c | 359.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 5c | 342.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 13c | 250.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 7c | 213.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 186.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 183.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 172.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 16c | 137.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 12c | 132.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 123.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 37c | 111.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 110.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 109.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 24c | 105.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 26c | 100.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…80f2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…90ebbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 99.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 90.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 88.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 74.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 69.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 66.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 24c | 59.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 55.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…21debacked Yes | 33c | 51.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 23c | 49.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 28c | 43.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 79c | 37.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed No | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 28.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 70c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 80c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.