Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd967342239edf745a499cf776dd6c0e778c6d008252352aac0c8156f1e07c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 2,102$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 886.34$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.53 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 12c | 591.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 73c | 584.4$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 465.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 42c | 428.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 411.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 403.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 25c | 365.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.48 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 36c | 284.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 66c | 276.67$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 238.36$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 234.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 55c | 216.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…a175backed No | 45c | 195.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 26c | 187.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 60c | 178.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 31c | 175.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 7c | 161.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 62c | 159.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 150.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 143.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…9731backed No | 54c | 136.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 59c | 135.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 44c | 134.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 23c | 125.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 115$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 106.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 54c | 102.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…90ebbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 77c | 99.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 26c | 98.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 26c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 28c | 96.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 95.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 78c | 94.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 92.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 43c | 92.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 71c | 84.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 59c | 84.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 77c | 82.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 21c | 79.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 77.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 42c | 76.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 25c | 76.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 15c | 69.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked Yes | 73c | 68.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 67.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 68c | 66.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 64.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed No | 75c | 63.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 23c | 62.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 58.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 51.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed Yes | 39c | 51.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…f89dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…3d84backed Yes | 30c | 46.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 46.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 45.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…460fbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked No | 45c | 37.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…6acebacked Yes | 33c | 35.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…57e6backed No | 77c | 35.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…1052backed No | 76c | 34.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 33.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 71c | 32.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed No | 74c | 31.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688d…0175backed Yes | 64c | 29.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 28.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…4518backed No | 74c | 27.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 24.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…40c9backed No | 74c | 24.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 61c | 23.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fe28backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 19.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.