Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ee78334eb6d0e1a1d28987cb050a8f3fbb3c8d9e8ff7c938d2344922eb6ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 6c | 1,695$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed Yes | 5c | 860.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 623.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 2c | 601.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…80f2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 14c | 458.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed No | 77c | 439.36$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 426.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 356.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 319.14$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 15c | 250.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 246.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 241.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 8c | 187.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 183.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 165.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 160.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 11c | 152.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 69c | 137.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 11c | 125.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 10c | 124.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 44c | 114.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 21c | 100.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 35c | 95.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…90ebbacked Yes | 23c | 87.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 16c | 86.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 78c | 84.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed Yes | 23c | 65.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked No | 64c | 47.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 23c | 47.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 42.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 36c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…21debacked Yes | 46c | 36.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 77c | 34.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed No | 80c | 13.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.