Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf87fdd154eba93c1f09dc5229a13b9377305f4e76cf7bb05bc5dae297fb89294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,750$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 464.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 400.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 381.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 359.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 6c | 340.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 17c | 270.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 233.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 230.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 202.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 176.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 172$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5c…fd72backed Yes | 13c | 157.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 17c | 150.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 150.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 10c | 145$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 25c | 138.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 21c | 134.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 132.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 132.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…9731backed Yes | 23c | 121.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 29c | 119$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 117.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 105.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 75c | 104.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 13c | 102.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 15c | 101.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d870backed Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 98.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…3490backed Yes | 20c | 86.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 75.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 38c | 64.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…8803backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 31c | 55.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…ca41backed Yes | 19c | 51.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 49.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 22c | 47.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 47.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 26c | 45.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 27c | 45.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 78c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 78c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 43c | 29.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed No | 79c | 15.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 75c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 77c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.