TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes21c3,157$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.31,78349%874 W · 909 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x768c…ab86backed No70c1,971$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.413100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes29c1,334$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5118853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa578…66afbacked Yes15c1,179$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes21c1,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23150%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed Yes29c877.47$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes8c779.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.052119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes35c739.83$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c673.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.584168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c3…8a32backed Yes14c663.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-69.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes20c654.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.352524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes4c647$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes27c621.4$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.791631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x963b…0b7bbacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c482.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83637.9%5 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes34c466.79$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.916248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a9…25d5backed No70c435.29$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes40c429.2$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c413.84$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2522129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x877f…7acbbacked No68c400$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c334.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.871117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes28c332.68$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.999324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes34c253$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0213147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No62c252.5$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No62c236.93$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.23887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+70.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x823e…fc4fbacked No66c225.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c199.53$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.988140.7%33 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4177…366bbacked Yes31c197.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No63c187.17$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c7…4cccbacked No60c184$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c171$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.181,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes11c169.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.643339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd020…7180backed Yes19c167.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes36c164.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.451225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-87.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed No70c142.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9705…0f43backed No71c140.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…9b7ebacked No71c140.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes32c130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.627338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc341…9a9fbacked No80c125.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf00…e784backed Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad8…0800backed No70c109.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No61c103.91$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5210442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce10…ef76backed Yes14c101.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c26…7a7abacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…10adbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8324…a714backed Yes18c99.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c99.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0216418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c91.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6927429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes32c91.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4886338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No68c86.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0093…be88backed No79c83.03$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.03875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes30c81.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.915947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6622…25d5backed No60c78.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.547844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…3ed5backed No69c69.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.35955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ed…ac9cbacked No77c65.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…3499backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fb…85a1backed No69c58.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes33c58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes37c57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9423245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ae…be02backed Yes23c55.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb95…0d2fbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…7e9cbacked No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes24c46.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-58.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes28c45.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes29c37.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc57f…5c64backed Yes30c35.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c88…7092backed Yes29c35.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…df8fbacked No64c31.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d26…2526backed Yes69c28.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7d…f070backed No63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No75c22.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6643838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No71c21.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.383737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68d…810cbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d67…e602backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…a41ebacked No70c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.