TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes31c6,927$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.441,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No76c1,968$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.7435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes14c1,264$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7418853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes32c1,253$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.752524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed No79c1,100$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2272466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed No71c1,006$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No79c977.53$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.1681240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74e3…59cdbacked No67c915.07$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c864.4$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.0419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No63c759.49$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.8613941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd031…b594backed Yes28c592.39$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No36c591.74$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.134148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes46c448.65$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c412.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24637.9%5 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No71c395.76$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.925639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes22c383.11$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4194…9809backed Yes39c378.06$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes50c342$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c317.5$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6322129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f3…fa39backed Yes26c313.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01a…e60abacked Yes48c307.31$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…72c3backed No52c284.96$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes14c278.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.862119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb65…571cbacked Yes38c277.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes11c245.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9516426.8%44 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b6…a4c5backed No56c245$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0093…be88backed No75c229.03$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.03875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes34c211$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No67c210.22$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+200.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes25c210$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2913147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9483…1656backed Yes52c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes17c163.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.652133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9d…dcc6backed No57c163.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8b…1614backed Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes46c160$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.221421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-58.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes19c159.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+97.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x829f…a63ebacked Yes76c152.03$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes56c151.36$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.292123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes73c142.12$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56f6…4568backed Yes40c141$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes52c140$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9310442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde12…fb14backed Yes42c139.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked Yes43c132.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8784…bf84backed No79c127.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No66c123.26$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.472250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c119.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7915835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes40c115.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.441735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No78c112.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.66560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes30c111.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcad8…0800backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes41c110$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes31c106.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.477844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed No63c106.9$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.28887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b8…c84dbacked No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3c…a7adbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4812360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69835.7%35 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7450…b5acbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07cb…daf3backed Yes21c93.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…b3d7backed Yes40c87.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No44c84.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.833737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c26…7a7abacked No56c84.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f79…e33ebacked No68c80.17$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No51c74.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1d…2f7dbacked No56c73.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes49c72.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0db8…8059backed Yes22c69.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes19c67.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8723245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c61.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.311010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes18c59.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.783342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c61…59b9backed Yes48c59.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No60c57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c9…5f35backed Yes20c52.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed Yes34c52.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.598623.3%20 W · 66 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x823e…fc4fbacked Yes53c50.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes47c50.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abd…86d8backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66d…de6cbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No54c49.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.496256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aee…7e9cbacked No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No49c42.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f8…8deebacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked No68c38.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.111631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce10…ef76backed No38c36.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7732…f0ddbacked No60c33.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed No60c29.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No61c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3124356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8267…f7b7backed Yes40c26.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes43c26.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.351861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes42c26.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed No62c23.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3920…a26dbacked No50c23.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.