TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ea5…928f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.95
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75.1%+$14.94
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.92
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.8
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.1
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$1,265.18
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$98
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$233.2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.57
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$86.4
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 15 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+229.9%+$45.98
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Hooker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mullarkey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Elekana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+69.3%+$69.25
UFC 325: Brundage vs. Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Brundage · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 325: Yizha vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Yizha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$50.62
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Nakamura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+108.3%+$21.67
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+214.4%+$59.67
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.14
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+119.8%+$21.64
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+147.6%+$28.56
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.42
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.79
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.09
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+112.8%+$73.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.72
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.42
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.64
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.08
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+124.1%+$117.57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 8 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$970
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$112.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+277.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+277.2%+$433.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+110.5%+$90.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rampage win at Hustler Casino on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+108.3%+$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$125
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.