TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Opendoor dip to $4.25 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,727$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.411,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No24c2,412$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.531,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No37c1,386$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.2781240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffa6…4bbebacked No53c700$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No58c498.81$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.981,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes35c328.57$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes42c322$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9699038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1956864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.517049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes57c285.18$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1660229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c269.83$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9486338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes49c264.4$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.216248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e36…e5ccbacked No21c254.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+382.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x791d…f82fbacked No9c252.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+978.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes22c240$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.221526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No53c200.39$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.593215.6%5 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.13148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No30c169.61$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.561020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No58c160.1$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.91250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes36c160$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.96141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c154.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5519934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes61c152$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes74c146.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.772688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes9c136.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4fec…a30cbacked Yes49c131$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ad…d8acbacked Yes49c129$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…82a0backed No50c128$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7402…602dbacked Yes49c128$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ef…d632backed Yes50c128$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…e6bcbacked Yes50c128$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3230…b7dcbacked Yes50c126$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b5…11cdbacked Yes49c126$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cb…7391backed Yes50c126$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e00…c129backed Yes50c125$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b80…ff91backed No51c125$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…b7b9backed No50c123$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7753…7f3dbacked Yes50c123$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c7…4bc2backed Yes65c123$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e95…f616backed No51c122$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca25…8ac0backed No50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef47…ba65backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf757…07e1backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…8d62backed Yes50c118$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x484a…849abacked No50c116$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bd…fe79backed No51c116$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8b9…fbe2backed Yes50c116$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd1…f110backed No50c114$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…707fbacked No51c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e8…4fedbacked No51c113$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4115…6466backed No50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…c131backed No50c112$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f2…c024backed No50c112$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes54c108.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.564146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd472…195ebacked Yes50c105$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No77c102.6$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.113941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x467a…d768backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee93…62d9backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d49…5b25backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.956256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…ba96backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a4…ffebbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e8…38b0backed Yes78c99.51$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd45e…99cfbacked No20c97.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.951741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes31c91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.911241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes63c89.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.463450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…9f8fbacked Yes50c85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes15c81.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635a…3c45backed Yes49c76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No42c70.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.992638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+11.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Yes66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid+177.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.551931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No22c49.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9727338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x624b…6190backed Yes32c49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No38c45.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No36c38.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.713672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes77c37.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No39c31.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No48c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.77068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes67c26.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0615131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x417e…52d4backed Yes59c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No41c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3456548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes56c23.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed No76c18.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed No76c18.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f3…be43backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.