Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebcebce8643989027c547ea1c9b61dac0b47a03dc44ae742c56fc32ed7f4521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,006$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 25c | 4,716$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.66 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,633$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.12 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 27c | 1,954$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.22 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,042$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 964.73$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 73c | 900$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 793$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 22c | 723.15$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 23c | 248.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 210.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 30c | 192.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 24c | 181.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 144$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked Yes | 22c | 111.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…57e4backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 28c | 96.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 20c | 73.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 52.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed No | 65c | 45.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 77c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 77c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in February?this page
- Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor dip to $4.25 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $6.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $7 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $7.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.