Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor reach $6.50 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d35158f35437b2a046f47ed834659a238f0eab9b6475c46b08a4fdbfb0a8371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,347$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 17c | 952.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…9836backed Yes | 3c | 683.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 66c | 211$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…97ffbacked Yes | 40c | 156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…d955backed Yes | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…7a6abacked Yes | 40c | 154$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8cf3backed Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 151.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…2a02backed Yes | 40c | 147$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b08…acffbacked Yes | 40c | 146$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…935bbacked No | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…5f34backed No | 60c | 107$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54b…2cfcbacked No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…d44abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45de…45e2backed No | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…a6f1backed No | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…7d85backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…318abacked No | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 17c | 66.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3a…0137backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…628dbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 54.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor reach $6.50 in February?this page
- Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor dip to $4.25 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $7 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $7.50 in February?No won
- Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.