UFC · resolved market
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1a4723b42d096ba7e70e6999eaf333b9b8249a3a4edb6f545254beb3622815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakamuraof Szalay, Nakamura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $600,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $700,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Nakamura | 46c | 168,313$77,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,890.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Szalay | 54c | 114,996$62,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,097.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Szalay | 54c | 76,204$41,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,438.35 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Szalay | 54c | 73,118$39,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,446.16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Nakamura | 47c | 38,546$18,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,429.38 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Nakamura | 45c | 38,450$17,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,147.49 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Szalay | 54c | 29,493$15,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,923.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Nakamura | 46c | 20,993$9,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,346.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed Nakamura | 46c | 18,017$8,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,729.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Nakamura | 45c | 15,278$6,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,406.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Szalay | 55c | 14,773$8,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Szalay | 54c | 13,999$7,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,599.46 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Nakamura | 45c | 13,542$6,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,448.04 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Szalay | 0c | 12,925$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Nakamura | 45c | 11,712$5,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,441.58 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Szalay | 54c | 10,547$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,706.48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nakamura | 46c | 10,490$4,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,710.73 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Szalay | 55c | 9,139$5,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,026.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Szalay | 54c | 8,696$4,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,696 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Szalay | 53c | 8,040$4,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,290.52 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Nakamura | 46c | 8,000$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Szalay | 54c | 6,995$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.02 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Nakamura | 46c | 6,569$3,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.9 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Szalay | 55c | 5,884$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.45 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Nakamura | 46c | 5,567$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,006.18 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Nakamura | 45c | 5,529$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nakamura | 45c | 4,738$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.56 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Szalay | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Nakamura | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Nakamura | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Nakamura | 26c | 3,932$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Szalay | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Szalay | 55c | 3,000$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Szalay | 56c | 2,980$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.82 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Szalay | 71c | 2,840$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.51 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Szalay | 57c | 2,446$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nakamura | 42c | 2,311$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.57 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nakamura | 38c | 2,060$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.74 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Nakamura | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Nakamura | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nakamura | 43c | 1,630$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.18 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Nakamura | 47c | 1,627$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.16 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Szalay | 54c | 1,610$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…f9bebacked Nakamura | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nakamura | 45c | 1,150$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Szalay | 54c | 1,133$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.82 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Szalay | 58c | 1,077$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…cc0cbacked Nakamura | 46c | 1,063$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…a13dbacked Nakamura | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Nakamura | 45c | 1,002$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…f8e1backed Szalay | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Nakamura | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Szalay | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Nakamura | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Szalay | 56c | 999.97$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.98 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Szalay | 55c | 909$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Szalay | 4c | 900$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Szalay | 54c | 894.07$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nakamura | 25c | 892.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.15 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Szalay | 55c | 888$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.4 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…08e6backed Szalay | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Szalay | 54c | 824.48$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Nakamura | 46c | 795.65$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Szalay | 53c | 760.39$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Szalay | 55c | 743$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Szalay | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Nakamura | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Nakamura | 44c | 680$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Szalay | 50c | 671.26$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.28 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Nakamura | 44c | 626.5$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Nakamura | 18c | 599.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.99 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Szalay | 55c | 590.54$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Nakamura | 45c | 578.75$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Nakamura | 44c | 563.83$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.74 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Nakamura | 42c | 550$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Nakamura | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Szalay | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…2926backed Nakamura | 26c | 504.16$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Szalay | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Szalay | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Nakamura | 44c | 450.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nakamura | 21c | 450$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…2e0bbacked Nakamura | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012c…478ebacked Szalay | 56c | 428.57$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Szalay | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Szalay | 54c | 399.85$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Szalay | 79c | 395.98$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.66 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…68d1backed Szalay | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Szalay | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Szalay | 80c | 346.4$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Nakamura | 50c | 331.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Nakamura | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Nakamura | 46c | 268.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Nakamura | 45c | 264.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Nakamura | 45c | 252.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Nakamura | 20c | 251$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Nakamura | 44c | 238.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Szalay | 55c | 232.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 132 | 67.4%89 W · 43 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Szalay | 62c | 231.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Nakamura | 44c | 228.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Keiichiro Nakamura win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Sebastian Szalay win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.