Fed Rates · resolved market
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e60c7b4bf767b9b667dea62454d1f26d36f9ce1c0fbdc7ce1386676cfd77f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 38c | 15,847$5,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,848.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 11,173$6,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,609.52 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 70c | 4,839$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 53c | 2,629$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 29c | 2,398$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.84 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 60c | 2,122$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 67c | 1,916$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 47c | 1,721$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 53c | 1,472$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 49c | 1,118$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.25 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 34c | 1,072$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.23 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 50c | 1,072$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.47 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,041$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 985.79$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 935.84$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 52c | 896.67$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 21c | 641.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 605.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed Yes | 46c | 600$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…4da2backed Yes | 55c | 550.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 58c | 550$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 540.89$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 18c | 501$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 423.08$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 339.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.29 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…805dbacked No | 80c | 339.1$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…3715backed Yes | 61c | 329.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 42c | 328.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.63 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…b75cbacked Yes | 37c | 263.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 42c | 252.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 53c | 249$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 230$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…e132backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 61c | 179$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 48c | 176$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 53c | 176$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 57c | 175.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 29c | 173.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 38c | 172.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes | 39c | 159.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…ff10backed Yes | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 148.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 125.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 47c | 119.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 119.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 38c | 117.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 45c | 113$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 31c | 111.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…3c46backed Yes | 35c | 104.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 54c | 97.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…2dedbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 39c | 76.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 40c | 76.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 51c | 62.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 60.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 48c | 58.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 49c | 55.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 52c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…98cfbacked Yes | 50c | 53.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc5…b066backed Yes | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…7337backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 48.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…e2a0backed Yes | 39c | 48.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 50c | 46.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c43…7466backed Yes | 79c | 46.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 34c | 45.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…1082backed Yes | 34c | 41.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 49c | 41.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 39c | 30.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…7b1fbacked Yes | 40c | 30.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.