Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac2e2c3d0a584a7fe746f6897e551b8263f29ecfe37bee562e01367e58fa3a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…8a98backed Yes | 0c | 37,530$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…e6f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 6,117$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,416$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…d45cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,496$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,108$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,094$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,951$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 3c | 1,422$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 13c | 980$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 776.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 611.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 9c | 560$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 7c | 545$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 495.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 5c | 480$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 11c | 454.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 7c | 404$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 364$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…ff10backed Yes | 22c | 351.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…26a0backed Yes | 13c | 308.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 9c | 271.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 6c | 238.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed No | 80c | 218.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 19c | 208.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 15c | 176.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 10c | 158.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…675fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…fed5backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 80c | 77.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…f850backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.