Fed Rates · resolved market
Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61ba15249e0d79e45ab8da55e9df3d7ab9b76b40c1514e857c17857034b621a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,393 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 22c | 1,717$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,365$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 6c | 967.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 78c | 963.58$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.37 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 7c | 800.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 6c | 753.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 8c | 480$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed Yes | 76c | 460.57$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 356.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 4c | 263.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 239$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 5c | 225.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 225.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 5c | 225.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 78c | 218.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked No | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 9c | 174.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 6c | 174.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 169$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…ff10backed Yes | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 92.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…3691backed No | 42c | 50.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.