Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd89fa42d3354bbe25423cd090b62fd4d29e6c1cdd6f7b3dd906422bbed5a7f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $405,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 2c | 13,651$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 3c | 10,756$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 9,376$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 49c | 9,231$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,671.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f6…0049backed Yes | 6c | 6,240$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,642$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…135ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,142$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…88c4backed Yes | 1c | 3,416$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 2,587$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…97cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,357$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…01c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,719$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 4c | 1,610$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,335$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,282$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,188$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…9cccbacked Yes | 2c | 987.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 5c | 930.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 5c | 713.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 5c | 705.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6e…de7fbacked Yes | 3c | 625.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…9785backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 565.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…078abacked Yes | 2c | 562.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…32d1backed Yes | 3c | 557.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 6c | 531.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cd…47e5backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 4c | 446.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…063ebacked Yes | 5c | 373.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 359.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 307.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 296.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…d275backed Yes | 5c | 214.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 188.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?this page
- Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?No won
- Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
- Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.