TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x94e4…6be5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarinobacked Zhizhen Zhang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Draper (+1.5)backed Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+150%+$75
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Dubai Tennis Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Alexei Popyrinbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passarobacked Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Zhizhen Zhangbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40.8%+$40.85
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Mariano Navonebacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$70.59
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)backed Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)backed Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+48.1%+$48.09
Set Handicap: Korda (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)backed Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.54
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Emilio Navabacked Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+53%+$55.61
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+31.6%+$6
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.33
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$6.31
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+70.1%+$55.68
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$357.08
Will Iran strike three countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Trump say "Israel" 13+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$138.38
All 10 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$52.7
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KaBuM! IDL win CD 2026 Split 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.46
Will Viper win Tyler 1 All Star tournament week 5? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSV win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Newcastle United FC vs. PSV: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $12.5B and $13.0B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.