Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Draper (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b71c2b70f72568db436225d7cde43b69c6a197e426b129b0360c338c0bbdb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Draper | 60c | 2,232$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.26 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Medvedev | 40c | 1,079$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.01 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…e574backed Medvedev | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 64c | 720.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.9 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Draper | 65c | 464.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Draper | 43c | 419$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Draper | 32c | 308.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…892bbacked Medvedev | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Medvedev | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Medvedev | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Draper | 64c | 110.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…685fbacked Medvedev | 40c | 94.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Medvedev | 36c | 83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Draper | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 185 | 41.1%76 W · 109 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Medvedev | 53c | 66.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Medvedev | 46c | 60.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Draper | 60c | 57.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…0678backed Draper | 40c | 56.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Medvedev | 40c | 55.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Draper | 37c | 54.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed Medvedev | 47c | 53.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Medvedev | 40c | 52.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 40c | 50.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Draper | 31c | 41.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Medvedev | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Draper | 35c | 36.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Draper | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Medvedev | 78c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…7bbabacked Draper | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Medvedev | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Medvedev | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…716bbacked Draper | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Draper | 50c | 24.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Medvedev | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Draper (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Draper vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Draper vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Draper vs MedvedevMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.