Stocks · resolved market
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8893944d7a174a32643064042147deb1a617f8756350e92c08f1584eb58c8212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 38c | 2,355$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked No | 79c | 2,117$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 36c | 1,021$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked Yes | 11c | 985.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 63c | 900$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 63c | 900$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 636.61$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 66c | 488.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 442.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 425.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 39c | 424$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 61c | 424$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed No | 64c | 418$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 16c | 412.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 64c | 376$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 26c | 368$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 74c | 368$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 40c | 359$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 317.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 64c | 227$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…8246backed No | 63c | 137$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 39c | 121.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…a29cbacked No | 60c | 95.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 33c | 87.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked No | 60c | 79.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 20c | 64.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 33c | 54.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…9d49backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b8…99dabacked No | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…69b3backed Yes | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…c97dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 34c | 40.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…93f4backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 78c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…d832backed No | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.