Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f6550fe1eb1fdac46efaebbc7b1f3f851f39124e5d99ef2d3f771835f17834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Machac | 16c | 2,071$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Sinner | 79c | 1,640$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.48 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Machac | 21c | 1,183$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.35 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Machac | 21c | 625$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Machac | 21c | 499.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Machac | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Machac | 21c | 303.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Sinner | 79c | 250.63$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…ea80backed Sinner | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Machac | 22c | 214.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…93bbbacked Sinner | 78c | 129.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…d1fdbacked Sinner | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Sinner | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…a8adbacked Sinner | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…bb45backed Sinner | 80c | 112.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Machac | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Sinner | 78c | 101.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…3a6abacked Sinner | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sinner | 77c | 99.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…b6f9backed Sinner | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Machac | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Machac | 43c | 48.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Sinner | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Sinner | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Sinner | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Sinner | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Sinner | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 308 | 60.1%185 W · 123 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…0b32backed Sinner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)this page
- Machac vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Machac vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Machac vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Tomas Machac vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Machac vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.