Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22004c0c9eb4b2288457fc2009835cf12cbe6c689e5bdf2a35f8fccd7608463b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Machac, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $499,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Machac | 0c | 50,011$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Machac | 3c | 45,271$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.82 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Machac | 7c | 16,025$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.72 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Machac | 2c | 15,766$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Machac | 6c | 15,719$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.15 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Machac | 6c | 12,100$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Machac | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Machac | 0c | 8,823$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Machac | 7c | 8,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.99 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 1c | 6,044$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Machac | 1c | 5,786$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…da95backed Machac | 5c | 5,408$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.39 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Machac | 7c | 5,061$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.47 | 283 | 38.9%110 W · 173 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Machac | 6c | 4,561$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…fbdabacked Machac | 2c | 4,183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Machac | 6c | 3,980$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Machac | 3c | 3,078$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…45bbbacked Machac | 2c | 2,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Machac | 1c | 2,117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Machac | 13c | 1,249$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Machac | 1c | 1,036$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Machac | 9c | 999.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Machac | 4c | 911.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Machac | 8c | 843.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Machac | 7c | 714$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Machac | 6c | 692.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Machac | 7c | 688.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Machac | 6c | 625.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Machac | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Machac | 6c | 599.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Machac | 7c | 586.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Machac | 7c | 569.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Machac | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Machac | 7c | 442.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Machac | 7c | 398.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Machac | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Machac | 7c | 322$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Machac | 8c | 283.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Machac | 10c | 264.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Machac | 7c | 258.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Machac | 12c | 228.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Machac | 6c | 207.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Machac | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Machac | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Machac | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Machac | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Machac | 9c | 126.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Sinner | 80c | 19.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qatar Open: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinnerthis page
- Machac vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Machac vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Machac vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Machac vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Machac (+1.5)Sinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.