Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 16 – Feb 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f2be475d4940d60e5d09495f7c5d16c63f2010efe24e236cd9331ff3a33b7e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 67c | 5,200$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.07 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 33c | 2,156$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.99 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,808$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 25c | 301.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 188.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 148.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed No | 31c | 144$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 48c | 140$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 31c | 135.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 50c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 99.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e8…f3c5backed No | 40c | 89.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Yes | 64c | 89.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 85.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 44c | 83.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 57c | 72.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 67.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 63.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 21c | 55.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 54.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…fb7ebacked No | 61c | 49.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…8363backed Yes | 76c | 47.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…ed83backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed No | 50c | 30.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 16 – Feb 20?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 16 – Feb 20?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 16 – Feb 20?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 16 – Feb 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.