World Politics · resolved market
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c38dd9305e3205557885183f0730270779e7e426b0ec3e7743f23963b6d6e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,520,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,770,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,520,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 665 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 14c | 266,668$36,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,321.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 4c | 103,611$4,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,424.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 80c | 101,128$80,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,550.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…48d1backed Yes | 2c | 101,117$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 1c | 90,679$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.17 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…21cbbacked Yes | 3c | 83,205$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 58,751$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.71 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 51,130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…1007backed Yes | 0c | 49,089$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 33,595$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.76 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 3c | 30,933$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 11c | 30,038$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…24fcbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 15c | 29,340$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,316.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 28,588$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed Yes | 2c | 22,273$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 21,922$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.66 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…e613backed Yes | 5c | 21,885$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 20,645$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…e598backed Yes | 3c | 19,696$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…89abbacked Yes | 3c | 18,621$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…d2b2backed Yes | 12c | 18,210$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…1ababacked Yes | 5c | 18,201$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…6673backed Yes | 5c | 16,111$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 2c | 15,738$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 1c | 14,192$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 20c | 14,068$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…2d3bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,950$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 4c | 13,086$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…d765backed Yes | 4c | 12,851$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,464$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…288fbacked No | 72c | 10,855$7,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 4c | 10,500$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 10,436$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.57 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…03a1backed Yes | 4c | 10,353$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 4c | 10,092$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…a860backed Yes | 13c | 10,015$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0829backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 5c | 9,985$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…63cabacked Yes | 4c | 9,540$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 9,124$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.67 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 18c | 9,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 4c | 9,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,912$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +88%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…4c93backed Yes | 5c | 8,201$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 5c | 7,694$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…299bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,095$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 6,762$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.28 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…9375backed Yes | 2c | 6,465$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…42f7backed Yes | 4c | 6,064$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…013abacked Yes | 4c | 6,015$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…324dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,879$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 5,822$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.73 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 29c | 5,668$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.37 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 6c | 5,601$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 3c | 5,550$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 6c | 5,396$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…a255backed Yes | 3c | 5,292$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…2e01backed Yes | 5c | 5,209$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…9759backed Yes | 4c | 5,171$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237d…63cebacked Yes | 5c | 5,143$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 3c | 5,122$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 6c | 4,803$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 9c | 4,710$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 5c | 4,624$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0f2ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,607$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03d…6da6backed Yes | 5c | 4,525$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,452$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,305$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 5c | 4,139$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…0133backed Yes | 21c | 4,125$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…8e5cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,020$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 5c | 3,941$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…2a6dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,935$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c4…721bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,891$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…e90bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,712$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…0129backed Yes | 6c | 3,603$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 3,600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…9de4backed Yes | 5c | 3,575$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,548$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…8fd4backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,452$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…9971backed Yes | 3c | 3,400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 4c | 3,300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 3,274$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 6c | 3,248$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…7422backed Yes | 25c | 3,053$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,990$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,923$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,888$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…65cdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,866$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 14c | 2,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 67c | 2,808$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.62 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.