TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x872e…e58f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Tennis at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6437.5%24 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+573.9%+$8,608
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,934Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+143.3%+$2,771.69
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$949Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$949.42
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,809Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,809.35
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$860.36
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$512.31
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$212.96
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$485.29
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$108.57
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$700
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
England vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$604.39
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$437.59
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+188.6%+$2,923.68
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$1,228.57
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+99.8%+$99.82
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$3,786.62
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$720
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+914.5%+$4,572.54
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+127.1%+$127.09
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,127.84
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,380
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$998.5
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,237.01
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.72
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,000
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,238.48
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$813
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$613.45
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.12
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+158.1%+$1,523.2
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-55.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Alina Charaevabacked Alina Charaeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,646Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,645.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.