Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1fb55027c477d32db00d63d17da6fe8869163f5e10bad9b8ae9cc95bcdba981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 3c | 11,296$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.86 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 71c | 7,164$5,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.76 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 34c | 6,617$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac62…dbecbacked No | 0c | 4,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 49c | 4,810$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.04 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…724abacked No | 5c | 4,435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…8f88backed No | 0c | 3,626$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 44c | 2,469$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.58 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 76c | 2,399$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.64 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 2,395$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 31c | 2,375$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.38 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 53c | 2,291$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.42 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 2c | 2,256$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 50c | 2,249$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.29 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 17c | 2,061$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.02 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 15c | 1,998$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.52 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,842$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…2a50backed Yes | 31c | 1,601$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 23cpaid | +441.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 4c | 1,600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,594$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 12c | 1,580$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 17c | 1,501$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…5732backed Yes | 75c | 1,400$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 39c | 1,277$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 24c | 1,243$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed No | 3c | 1,234$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 24c | 1,231$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…b294backed Yes | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 2c | 1,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…6ca9backed No | 23c | 956.52$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 2c | 918.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed No | 63c | 881.28$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…4d6ebacked No | 35c | 863.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 72c | 833.85$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…7646backed No | 24c | 830.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…d4b6backed No | 4c | 829.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 3c | 782.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 48c | 752.73$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.42 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 36c | 730.09$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked No | 2c | 704.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 703.23$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…bed4backed Yes | 75c | 668.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 76c | 650$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 5c | 620.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 76c | 602.21$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 25c | 520.37$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 19c | 499.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 37c | 482.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 34c | 469$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…0705backed No | 24c | 419.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 405.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 56c | 400$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 73c | 392.62$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…bcc8backed No | 23c | 390.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 26c | 384.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…e34ebacked Yes | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 13c | 379$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 66c | 377.78$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 20c | 375.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 69c | 363.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6067…08eabacked Yes | 30c | 360.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 74c | 340.03$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yes | 77c | 331.1$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 65c | 327.83$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…cc3fbacked Yes | 31c | 323.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 77c | 317.31$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 69c | 302.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 288.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 19c | 270.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 24c | 270.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…ecfebacked No | 25c | 253.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…156cbacked Yes | 74c | 250.94$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 34c | 250$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed No | 58c | 249.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 75c | 231$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 24c | 229.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 22c | 205.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…cd46backed No | 20c | 203.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f1…a6a0backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…bbf9backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…821dbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 50c | 199.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…1cc6backed No | 50c | 199.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 56c | 193$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 28c | 187.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…1115backed No | 27c | 187.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 67c | 179.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 22c | 178.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e564backed Yes | 46c | 174.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…4cd8backed No | 52c | 167.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 28c | 163.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.