TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed No3c11,296$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes71c7,164$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.7635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No34c6,617$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236.785541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac62…dbecbacked No0c4,885$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No49c4,810$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.0415541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720f…724abacked No5c4,435$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+170.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35b3…8f88backed No0c3,626$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes44c2,469$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.587648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes76c2,399$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.6427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c2,395$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.452438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No31c2,375$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.3838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No53c2,291$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.4233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8278…22a1backed No2c2,256$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407243.1%31 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes50c2,249$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.298633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No17c2,061$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0222627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No15c1,998$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c1,842$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.555071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…2a50backed Yes31c1,601$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.48per pick23cpaid+441.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No4c1,600$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,594$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.121,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No12c1,580$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No17c1,501$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2558833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a35…5732backed Yes75c1,400$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No39c1,277$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked No24c1,243$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.642729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed No3c1,234$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.186530.8%20 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked No24c1,231$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c1,200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3142311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4447…b294backed Yes77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2761723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No2c1,111$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1128427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dbc…6ca9backed No23c956.52$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No2c918.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3958…82e3backed No63c881.28$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.512321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked No35c863.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004035%14 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes72c833.85$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.232842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+131%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7099…7646backed No24c830.29$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8788…d4b6backed No4c829.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.393218.8%6 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No3c782.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.03629.7%6 W · 56 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes48c752.73$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.4216743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes36c730.09$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.063348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked No2c704.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes74c703.23$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd1…bed4backed Yes75c668.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes76c650$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.514944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked No5c620.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes76c602.21$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2124149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.413022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No25c520.37$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.178939.3%35 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No19c499.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes37c482.01$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.254524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa465…6b06backed Yes34c469$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.541526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1acf…0705backed No24c419.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d82…3531backed No12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No5c405.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6711818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked No56c400$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2269436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0796…8264backed Yes73c392.62$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e23…bcc8backed No23c390.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No26c384.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3524…e34ebacked Yes78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.622045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No13c379$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.279124.2%22 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed No66c377.78$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed No20c375.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.299116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes69c363.01$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.275158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6067…08eabacked Yes30c360.93$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes74c340.03$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7413321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes77c331.1$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.65862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No65c327.83$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2919056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb97f…cc3fbacked Yes31c323.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.711553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes77c317.31$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.986549.2%32 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No69c302.9$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.553461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c288.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.664136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No19c270.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed No24c270.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656346%29 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed No16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427317.8%13 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3d…ecfebacked No25c253.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.351526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…156cbacked Yes74c250.94$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.592065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes34c250$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.611334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No58c249.51$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.024839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes75c231$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9911859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No24c229.37$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9212951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x830b…0a93backed No32c220$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.44459.1%26 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+50.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No22c205.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.594814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x651f…cd46backed No20c203.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f1…a6a0backed No24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…bbf9backed Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…821dbacked No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes50c199.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.823234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf184…1cc6backed No50c199.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No56c193$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.278433.3%28 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes28c187.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13515740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e5…1115backed No27c187.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.74825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-61.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No67c179.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.617129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No22c178.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.212441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ab8…e564backed Yes46c174.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.391471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+44.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a0c…4cd8backed No52c167.31$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No28c163.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.747661.8%47 W · 29 L+16.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+46.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.