Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f5b8caf2c9887b5f25f3b56d5f82673b0c4dfbc98d0de4b947a960ed5c16c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 2c | 12,330$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.12 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed No | 3c | 2,234$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 34c | 1,827$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.6 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 63c | 1,549$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.92 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 17c | 982.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 70c | 902.11$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 3c | 854.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 39c | 672.76$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 662.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 65c | 615.73$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.53 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 2c | 555$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…d4b6backed No | 3c | 440.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 47c | 422.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.82 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 248.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 200.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 42c | 176.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…399abacked No | 37c | 155.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 39c | 149.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 14c | 135.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…77c8backed No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 15c | 127.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 37c | 122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2c…7930backed No | 53c | 116.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 46c | 104.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…4123backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…156cbacked Yes | 59c | 97.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…5a4cbacked No | 25c | 68.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…5cf1backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed No | 39c | 49.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 66c | 39.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 30c | 39.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 47c | 38.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…b305backed Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…130cbacked Yes | 69c | 35.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 32c | 35.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…0a05backed Yes | 74c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 49c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?this page
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.