TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ac0…071e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
154
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Weather, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 61 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT3534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.55
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.67
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.11
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.35
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.59
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.47
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+80%+$92.11
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+141%+$107.15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$16.92
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.72
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$26.66
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$80.74
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.49
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+179.3%+$18.45
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$48.87
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.27
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.79
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+200.1%+$33.34
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$23.89
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$47.7
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Weather — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$13
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$6.02
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$20.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.51
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$76.36
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.29
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$21.48
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.63
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$94.45
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$36.12
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$23.71
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+203%+$61.42
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.64
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.99
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.99
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+104.4%+$124.33
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.22
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$22.3
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.79
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.8
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.23
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$634.74
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$77.66
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.34
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.32
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$34.74
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$19.76
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.48
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.52
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.41
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$41.99
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.7
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34.07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.5
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.88
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41.69
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$26.69
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 21?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 21?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.06
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.61
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.86
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.80 Week of April 13 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$130.85
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 13 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$77.39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.7
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of March 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.77
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$85
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.47
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+525%+$84
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.35
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.09
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$36.16
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.71
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$119.62
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.78
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$105.41
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$28.62
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.65
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$35.64
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+95.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+203%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+91%+$11.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.