TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes73c6,266$4,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.1428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed No0c5,809$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.464445.5%20 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+152.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No36c5,022$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.1856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No0c4,880$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.645119.6%10 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes60c4,841$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.954129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed No0c4,566$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.782321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No6c4,248$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.561,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes62c4,017$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.0846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No27c3,921$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.41,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No39c3,901$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.7517631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes44c3,632$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.4654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c45…425cbacked Yes74c3,292$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.061625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes71c3,250$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.57126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No31c3,136$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes72c3,132$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.111729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c3,015$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.032401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No37c2,963$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.6963821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes72c2,879$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.6421614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No25c2,865$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.2528025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No1c2,666$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.661717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f63…310dbacked Yes69c2,523$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.182441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No56c2,392$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.7620735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed No52c1,932$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.866634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c1,755$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7251845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes50c1,658$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.8514137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No42c1,568$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.0838828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No2c1,499$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9915844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes67c1,383$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.55056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30017628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No2c1,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes63c1,189$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9817126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes50c1,177$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.384639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes48c1,063$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.7710125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes43c1,059$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.595418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9829…b49cbacked Yes77c1,001$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes74c999.99$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2628633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e8…9c25backed Yes75c982.12$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6e3abacked Yes50c981.66$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked Yes73c948.42$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.872290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes69c941.08$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.97022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes70c933.41$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.7410840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes80c927.31$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c906$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.88532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c900$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.442628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes44c861.22$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.933844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes47c836.96$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5220129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No34c835.51$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes78c817.74$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7553522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes79c744.33$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7228723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed No12c743.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.733740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No22c742.8$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.497357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked No24c719.64$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes54c709.24$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4334833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe66…bcbfbacked Yes78c627.69$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.74757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a0…b9eebacked No55c624.97$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.732846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1383933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes76c588.18$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.47448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaff…8354backed Yes74c586.22$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.421546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes68c585.54$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6823831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…b5a0backed Yes70c580.31$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.655240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No20c559.04$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes66c548.42$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed No7c530.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4811124.3%27 W · 84 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes46c510.74$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.061,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f31…44edbacked Yes42c507.79$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.382231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…f79abacked No58c498.92$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes63c467.4$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3341230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes55c448.7$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.011,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes71c446.34$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.311424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes73c427.44$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes47c405.15$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.832529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes73c401.96$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.182347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes72c400.41$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8118726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1126420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e18…9fd6backed No22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No35c400$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Yes42c399.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.992123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes65c398.62$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6313844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No49c386.25$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.83955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a03…d5cebacked No59c383.55$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.31729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes79c356.11$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.923819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes44c350$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1964231%13 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes76c345.75$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.326940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8356…d6cbbacked Yes44c324.06$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.51723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed Yes45c318.92$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5605…5962backed Yes45c316.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.251735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes72c309.71$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.116322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes63c308$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes63c304.58$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.933265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c301.47$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9731565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No23c299.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6919124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x016a…6f6fbacked Yes43c299.95$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.971225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a42…427dbacked No27c296.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes78c293$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.465529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed No12c290.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8218939.2%74 W · 115 L+15.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c275.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3126461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b6…0203backed No14c269.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.99642.7%41 W · 55 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes70c268.13$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.399036.7%33 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…f604backed Yes75c260.95$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.116934.8%24 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.