TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$528,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $528,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2778…8547backed Yes0c42,889$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5813315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes0c23,200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594445.5%20 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+152.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c22,136$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.354816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes2c17,870$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2929331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes9c9,672$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.1611512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c9,565$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.51,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes5c8,817$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.645511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes12c8,794$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.3763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7c…9400backed Yes0c8,087$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.832725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes2c7,525$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.153817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes2c6,113$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.431,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes17c5,901$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.312227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c5,840$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.417917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes4c5,752$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.17875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes11c4,886$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.1221614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes1c4,346$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1312424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c4,282$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0821220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c4,259$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes13c3,630$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes5c3,536$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8416427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes15c3,376$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.183928.2%11 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes12c3,161$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes0c3,144$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.149919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes4c3,126$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes6c3,000$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17336411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes20c2,933$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.9322610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes2c2,890$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5524815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes6c2,765$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.413844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes7c2,751$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5112411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes1c2,731$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.391717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes2c2,621$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9116110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes1c2,607$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.613430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c2,439$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8832716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes7c2,338$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6225617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c2,327$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes10c2,271$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes10c2,169$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4415844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c2,089$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32017723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes13c1,955$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.431,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes7c1,943$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4319722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes5c1,940$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.96802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes18c1,883$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2720129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes6c1,873$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.266021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes3c1,816$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2238614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes4c1,793$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.245529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes11c1,768$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c1,746$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.778111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes12c1,692$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3810629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes5c1,684$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.657728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes18c1,673$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes12c1,626$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5762539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes5c1,595$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.194714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes9c1,474$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2748819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes1c1,428$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ad…32e4backed Yes1c1,400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913229.5%39 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes6c1,392$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6927417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes8c1,370$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6357621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes2c1,335$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3122926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…f520backed Yes14c1,314$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e18…9fd6backed Yes5c1,279$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.431020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes5c1,123$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes2c1,083$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.315925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes14c1,008$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1832110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.513517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.513713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes6c999.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes2c999.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes6c990.02$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.561,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes14c951.76$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.168219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes10c949.6$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.654429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c948.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.951,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…e564backed Yes20c942.37$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.93627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes14c928.64$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes8c927.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c915.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes2c902.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04240%0 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes7c900.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6519726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes2c899.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0414332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c898.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.051,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes2c877.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3219118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c823.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.211,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes10c810.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.912116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes8c785.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes6c785.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes3c777.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3623819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes10c748.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.292714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes10c736.73$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.972338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c735.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.232,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd805…9eaabacked Yes2c657.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.455616.1%9 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes7c650.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.925920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes8c616.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.779317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes10c600.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0613517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes10c599.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes2c591.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb6…008fbacked Yes7c575$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes5c560.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.613836.8%14 W · 24 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+97%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes6c540.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.129627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.