TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$593,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$481,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes8c33,686$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.8963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes29c17,686$5,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,125.3817631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes15c14,984$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.1157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes20c13,737$2,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.5329331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes14c13,329$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.261,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes25c9,735$2,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.611512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes23c9,335$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.4221614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes30c8,385$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.8956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes1c7,701$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7711325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes26c7,491$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.9553522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes19c7,430$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.9488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes2c6,986$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7712424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes11c6,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes22c5,683$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes22c5,181$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.1156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes23c5,152$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.427126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes6c4,837$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.4917723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes18c4,747$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.5466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes21c4,647$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.2924815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No80c4,528$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.9728025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes31c4,349$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.1128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes13c3,807$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.5218726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No78c3,793$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.121560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes18c3,778$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.0112411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes10c3,644$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6828016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd57…dec0backed No76c3,328$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5da…ff1dbacked Yes12c3,149$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.911428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+59.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes26c3,040$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.9629227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No68c2,862$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.6163821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes30c2,795$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.3538828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes18c2,775$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.047022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes8c2,697$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes12c2,664$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.3850319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes27c2,500$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67011729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes4c2,300$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9216427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No68c2,272$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.1315649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c2,063$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.731,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes35c2,063$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.088425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9429…c151backed No73c2,058$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.81656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes12c2,055$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.19348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No63c1,935$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.8620735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Yes9c1,880$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.52123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked No79c1,862$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.232740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes17c1,807$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.31,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes12c1,782$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2816023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No70c1,780$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.3315844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked No75c1,704$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.045056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No72c1,676$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.1962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes15c1,613$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.433511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes22c1,527$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes5c1,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2623819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2807…ce58backed Yes26c1,495$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.131711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes10c1,450$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.810432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c1,416$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.762,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes17c1,384$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes28c1,347$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.05933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c1,338$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4622926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ad…32e4backed Yes15c1,334$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3913229.5%39 W · 93 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes11c1,320$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0919930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes23c1,297$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1138614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes11c1,292$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9512216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004129.3%12 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes24c1,200$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2517628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes24c1,163$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.775139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb036…5c79backed Yes28c1,134$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.322245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes13c1,067$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5934425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked No76c1,025$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3910542.9%45 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes16c1,000$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15718123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes5c999.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5162412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6e3abacked Yes24c985.46$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked No73c980.1$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.24351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes25c969.15$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.369511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes25c965.71$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.087448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed Yes19c955.02$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.954348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes9c947.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4219118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked No66c930.46$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.161233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No68c929.74$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.1646137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes11c926.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0314025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes13c885.9$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.26802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked No74c875.5$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes11c858.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.717913.9%11 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked No77c843.06$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.062373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes35c821.99$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.721,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes20c818.61$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4512416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes12c816.92$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.632338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed No75c790.92$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.362725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes17c790.69$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5213844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No64c749.97$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.492157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes45c747.78$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.6833527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes7c745.03$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9111424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes30c721.88$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.943938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes27c703.17$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.472611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed No69c700$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21420129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…964ebacked Yes4c700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…f520backed Yes27c695.39$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.331513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf0d…5077backed Yes15c686.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes21c680.78$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0533231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10c8…9ddabacked No75c676.87$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.791030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.