Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e539dfa381bdce2958749a83094d12acc1ea8425e4db3b6a496362f8e0b90d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $481,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 33,686$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.89 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 29c | 17,686$5,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125.38 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 14,984$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.11 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 13,737$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.53 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 14c | 13,329$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.26 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 25c | 9,735$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.6 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 23c | 9,335$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.42 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 30c | 8,385$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.89 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 1c | 7,701$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 26c | 7,491$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.95 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 19c | 7,430$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.94 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,986$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 11c | 6,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 22c | 5,683$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.5 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 22c | 5,181$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.11 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 23c | 5,152$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.42 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 6c | 4,837$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.49 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 18c | 4,747$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.54 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 21c | 4,647$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.29 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 80c | 4,528$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.97 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 31c | 4,349$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.11 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 13c | 3,807$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.52 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 78c | 3,793$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 3,778$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.01 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,644$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…dec0backed No | 76c | 3,328$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…ff1dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,149$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 26c | 3,040$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.96 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 68c | 2,862$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.61 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 30c | 2,795$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.35 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 18c | 2,775$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.04 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 8c | 2,697$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.34 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 2,664$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.38 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 27c | 2,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 68c | 2,272$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.13 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,063$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 35c | 2,063$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.08 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed No | 73c | 2,058$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,055$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.19 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 63c | 1,935$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.86 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Yes | 9c | 1,880$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…f83abacked No | 79c | 1,862$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,807$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.3 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 12c | 1,782$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 70c | 1,780$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.33 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 75c | 1,704$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.04 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 72c | 1,676$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.19 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,613$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 22c | 1,527$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.23 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…ce58backed Yes | 26c | 1,495$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.13 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 10c | 1,450$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 1,416$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.76 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 17c | 1,384$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.83 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 28c | 1,347$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 1,338$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…32e4backed Yes | 15c | 1,334$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 132 | 29.5%39 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 11c | 1,320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 23c | 1,297$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.11 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 1,292$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 24c | 1,200$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.25 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 24c | 1,163$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.77 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…5c79backed Yes | 28c | 1,134$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 13c | 1,067$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 76c | 1,025$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.39 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6e3abacked Yes | 24c | 985.46$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 73c | 980.1$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…36a9backed Yes | 25c | 969.15$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.36 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 25c | 965.71$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 19c | 955.02$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 9c | 947.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked No | 66c | 930.46$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 68c | 929.74$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.16 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 11c | 926.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 13c | 885.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…7a2bbacked No | 74c | 875.5$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 11c | 858.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked No | 77c | 843.06$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 35c | 821.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.72 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 20c | 818.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 12c | 816.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed No | 75c | 790.92$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 17c | 790.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 64c | 749.97$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 45c | 747.78$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.68 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 7c | 745.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 30c | 721.88$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.94 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…fe27backed Yes | 27c | 703.17$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed No | 69c | 700$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…964ebacked Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…f520backed Yes | 27c | 695.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…5077backed Yes | 15c | 686.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 21c | 680.78$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…9ddabacked No | 75c | 676.87$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.