Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc259b0ea8f228bf998c495aaf9dca989434ed3c64626b6ff9884a0b9e6f78dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 29,081$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.09 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 1c | 19,602$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.92 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,238$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,777$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 2c | 5,924$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 1c | 5,732$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 1c | 5,575$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,015$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 3c | 3,766$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 2c | 3,008$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,946$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,935$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 2,693$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,342$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 2,097$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6e3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,970$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 2c | 1,920$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,786$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…984bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,519$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,449$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…f520backed Yes | 1c | 1,387$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 2c | 998.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes | 3c | 993.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes | 3c | 977.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 4c | 781.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 2c | 758.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 2c | 643.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 4c | 586.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 503.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…f12dbacked Yes | 2c | 486.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 3c | 450.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.