TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e07…36a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 51 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT9511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 95 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+265.9%+$604.12
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.46
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.98
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+214.1%+$684.23
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.23
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.66
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$678.01
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.41
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$394.98
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.53
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.66
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+500%+$375
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.64
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.57
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.72
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.13
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.87
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+203.3%+$326.44
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.43
Showing 25 of 95 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-84.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.49
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.56
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.78
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$348.64
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$394.78
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.28
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.39
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.25
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.85
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Capitals vs. Flamesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20.45
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolinabacked Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.