TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,008,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$623,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,008,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfca…645abacked Yes1c85,678$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.5627820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c65,931$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.311,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a2…6520backed Yes0c31,826$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c18,843$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.771,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55dc…54c8backed Yes0c15,803$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes1c13,657$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9663414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes1c12,210$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.152512%3 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+272.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b7…cab7backed Yes0c12,058$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+80%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes0c10,727$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0311111.7%13 W · 98 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c10,666$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c10,220$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.271,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes0c10,065$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.823134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes8c9,729$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.39180%0 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes0c9,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes3c8,834$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4829113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c8,685$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721873.2%6 W · 181 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid+278.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes2c7,534$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.743417.6%6 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x776d…a16bbacked Yes6c7,052$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.211520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+136.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c5,805$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.162,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes0c5,735$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1650913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes2c5,375$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.752116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes0c4,855$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.613644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes1c4,780$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.436113.1%8 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c4,582$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.991,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c4,308$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.281,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes1c4,015$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5626516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes3c3,959$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4517631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe976…97c0backed Yes0c3,928$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes2c3,866$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.39195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes14c3,665$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.2453522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes0c3,493$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8688610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Yes0c3,381$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes1c3,241$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6818.6%7 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+122.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes2c3,044$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c3,023$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes5c2,845$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.265909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c2,827$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.911308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3480…d29bbacked Yes1c2,822$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes1c2,659$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes1c2,600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1548310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes3c2,404$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.866410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes2c2,250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.52222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c2,235$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6458011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c2,233$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c2,116$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2924114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes1c2,043$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65267.7%2 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+254.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes2c2,033$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.334806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes6c2,001$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes1c1,992$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1182711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes9c1,985$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes2c1,956$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4833422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,932$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.863281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c1,931$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes4c1,923$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0914413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c1,897$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.355628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes3c1,695$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.172338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes1c1,688$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5641230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes1c1,594$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8325311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes1c1,590$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes6c1,574$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…24a9backed Yes1c1,516$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes1c1,507$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.423228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes5c1,500$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.551410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes3c1,436$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.665598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes1c1,369$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2263821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes1c1,306$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3538614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,289$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.135535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes6c1,182$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5719726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes4c1,155$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.385413%7 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes3c1,031$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.62290%0 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes2c833.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.267010%7 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes6c807.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6112213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes2c791.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3923321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes14c785.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8426113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes2c770.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.539511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c757.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes2c715.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6425012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes2c675.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes9c650.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2828025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes2c617.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.859330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes3c593.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.163627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68fc…55d3backed Yes16c583.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.573627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes14c566.74$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.917610.5%8 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes4c556.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.673215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes18c550.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.56015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes2c533.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6911111.7%13 W · 98 L+0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c480.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes4c459.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.013813.2%5 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes4c455.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.445824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes12c391.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2834515.9%55 W · 290 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8793…4b62backed Yes10c356.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.34234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-85%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes3c351.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7417817.4%31 W · 147 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974d…a1efbacked Yes8c343.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.245131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd8…f0c2backed Yes5c297.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.574949%24 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a41…2b22backed Yes5c277.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62825%7 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes17c273.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3611729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4986…6996backed Yes9c270.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4414124.1%34 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f92…dec0backed Yes17c266.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0625…96babacked Yes4c245.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.