TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa323…e0ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 51 out of 100; worst Tweets at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT6015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.89
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.39
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.13
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.46
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.36
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+525%+$504
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.4
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.82
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.73
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$161
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.13
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.08
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+306.5%+$490.1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$133
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.04
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.4
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.86
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.24
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+217.2%+$544.27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.77
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.15
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.93
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55.2%+$80.1
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$252
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.43
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+149.6%+$499.76
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.88
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.81
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$3,049.13
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+301.6%+$751
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+103.8%+$657.33
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$2,449.6
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$824.4
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$213
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+83.7%+$248.25
All 20 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,674Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$1,425.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+29.9%+$29.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: SK Gaming vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.