Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $683,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $323,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,467 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 502 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	32,149$4,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,637.98	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	29,462$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.46	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	5c	28,829$1,412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,411.93	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	36c	26,587$9,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,518.47	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	21,963$1,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,333.12	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	17,326$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	23c	16,372$3,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,737.84	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	12,371$1,790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,790.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86fa…77cebacked Yes	0c	11,750$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc98f…bac8backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	0c	10,792$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	10,717$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.93	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	0cpaid	+13,285.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	9,153$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.51	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	9,086$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.37	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	8c	6,250$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.61	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	10c	6,000$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.82	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	5,306$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.06	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	6c	5,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	10c	4,971$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.76	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	33c	4,813$1,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,577.81	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	2c	4,713$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.71	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	21c	4,653$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.6	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	30c	4,633$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,367.98	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	17c	4,420$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.34	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	4,265$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.68	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	0c	4,156$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	14c	4,079$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.1	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	32c	4,068$1,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,315.71	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	0c	3,708$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	10c	3,599$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.6	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	12c	3,556$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.1	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	68c	3,456$2,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120.83	210	63.3%133 W · 77 L	+22.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	24c	3,318$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.26	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	3,100$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.37	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	26c	3,088$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.83	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	12c	2,994$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.44	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	2,968$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.94	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,709$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.62	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	14c	2,662$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.87	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	12c	2,546$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.02	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	5c	2,500$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.3	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	2,407$1,655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.14	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	11c	2,380$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	14c	2,312$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.44	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	78c	2,304$1,790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.75	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	8c	2,297$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.48	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	18c	2,294$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.1	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes	3c	2,224$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.93	113	25.7%29 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	11c	2,223$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.41	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	21c	2,195$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.13	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	2,180$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.81	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	15c	2,137$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.84	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	10c	2,085$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	22c	2,063$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.17	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No	70c	1,870$1,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.61	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	6c	1,860$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.49	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	1,825$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.91	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	1,820$1,353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.84	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc604…6dbabacked Yes	15c	1,779$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	3c	1,700$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.05	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	4c	1,678$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.62	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	30c	1,653$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.8	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	72c	1,585$1,135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.84	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,574$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.03	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1a…d6fdbacked Yes	8c	1,550$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.77	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	12cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	1,501$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	33c	1,472$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.43	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	19c	1,451$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes	35c	1,436$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.31	108	29.6%32 W · 76 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7b…a772backed No	72c	1,382$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.17	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	37c	1,374$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.81	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,335$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.07	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	20c	1,270$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.39	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4b…525fbacked Yes	12c	1,245$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.37	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5d…3e6fbacked Yes	13c	1,227$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.53	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	26c	1,197$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.28	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	32c	1,196$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.64	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa99…fd3fbacked No	77c	1,184$916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.54	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	77cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	1,174$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.13	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fa…1faebacked Yes	19c	1,143$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.59	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	1,142$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.75	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b4…7df3backed Yes	16c	1,082$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.81	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+100.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	80c	1,074$858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.01	218	57.8%126 W · 92 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	28c	1,073$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.11	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes	29c	1,053$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x275b…1780backed Yes	25c	1,052$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.66	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	9c	1,004$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.54	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	20c	999.99$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	989.12$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.69	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	960.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ec…e25abacked Yes	27c	954.96$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.71	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes	17c	922.29$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed Yes	2c	911.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No	71c	904.84$645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.31	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	12c	893.71$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No	67c	881$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.24	89	60.7%54 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No	65c	877.99$571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.42	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event