Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d01d7c91999ac53ec34f1054aa1130b100c54378a50703563af9b5e58e2d9ad

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $577,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $276,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,598 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	8c	20,797$1,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,591.68	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	16,748$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	16,000$3,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,128.4	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	20c	14,966$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,924.92	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	9c	14,117$1,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.08	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	13,769$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,593.49	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	12,978$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.29	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	11,392$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.82	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	12c	10,940$1,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,357.3	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	10,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	8c	9,986$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845.28	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	9,519$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.14	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	8,617$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.11	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	8,235$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.17	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	7,999$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.2	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2df…3b97backed Yes	6c	7,826$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	13c	7,313$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.41	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	12c	6,820$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.39	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…9017backed Yes	2c	6,413$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	6,028$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.98	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	6,000$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.32	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	5,898$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.9	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	7c	5,883$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.63	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	5,132$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.59	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb0…9582backed Yes	1c	5,056$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.22	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	4,925$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.23	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	4,715$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.94	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	15c	4,555$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.06	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	4,492$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.12	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No	76c	4,444$3,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,088.76	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	6c	4,126$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.91	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	9c	3,874$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.73	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes	21c	3,594$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.88	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	23c	3,500$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	4c	3,201$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.28	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	14c	3,035$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.9	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	4c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	10c	2,984$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.73	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	3c	2,874$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.39	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	9c	2,768$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.33	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	2c	2,723$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	2,700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	4c	2,697$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.14	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes	4c	2,652$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.62	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	10c	2,614$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.06	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	5c	2,540$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.16	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	5c	2,500$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.27	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	2,500$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	9c	2,496$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.35	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	10c	2,174$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.22	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	2,165$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.25	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	7c	2,097$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.05	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	2,047$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.09	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes	5c	2,005$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	2,002$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.36	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	15c	1,956$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.13	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	3c	1,905$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.83	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	10c	1,800$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.01	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes	5c	1,800$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	108	29.6%32 W · 76 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc604…6dbabacked Yes	10c	1,798$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,791$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.78	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	5c	1,716$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.18	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	5c	1,705$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.74	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	3c	1,680$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,641$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.86	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes	22c	1,631$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.31	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,603$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.91	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	14c	1,598$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.74	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	15c	1,584$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.41	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5d…3e6fbacked Yes	9c	1,560$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.61	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…d6cdbacked No	77c	1,430$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.9	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	7c	1,411$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.16	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	79c	1,383$1,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.2	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed Yes	3c	1,331$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	16c	1,328$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.85	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	5c	1,310$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.67	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	6c	1,305$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37cc…ae68backed Yes	11c	1,278$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,244$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	5c	1,215$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.87	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	6c	1,214$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.75	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc4…eaaebacked Yes	5c	1,200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.54	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes	15c	1,194$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.69	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	1,180$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.46	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	8c	1,174$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.18	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	1,124$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.38	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,114$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.77	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	19c	1,104$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.93	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	14c	1,035$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.78	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	24c	1,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4eb…e98dbacked Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	7c	989.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes	26c	963.72$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	11c	945.53$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.13	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	9c	938.51$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.42	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	4c	912.95$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.91	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	4c	900$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ec…e25abacked Yes	22c	891.3$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.9	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event