Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d6113a7d1552cd8fa4d41c123731aeac427955941d13292789440a496a8386

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $483,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $237,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,224 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	65,555$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	20,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	19,743$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.15	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	14,510$1,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	11,282$1,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,843.95	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	10,002$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.38	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	18c	7,309$1,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.47	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	14c	7,303$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.21	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	7,300$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.62	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	4c	6,560$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.52	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	2c	6,363$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.53	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8634…3912backed Yes	5c	6,263$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	7c	6,185$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.93	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	1c	6,120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.42	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	20c	6,092$1,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240.78	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	5,409$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	17c	5,408$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.45	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,145$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,132$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.76	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	21c	4,807$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.51	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e12…425dbacked Yes	1c	4,483$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	5c	4,312$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.36	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…9b4ebacked Yes	1c	4,200$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	9c	3,861$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.84	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	13c	3,527$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.6	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	12c	3,500$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.92	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a1…fa1abacked Yes	3c	3,304$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.67	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+193.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	11c	3,257$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.75	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	18c	3,222$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa343…a041backed Yes	2c	3,200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	20c	2,752$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.14	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	10c	2,522$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.02	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	18c	2,429$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.5	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	21c	2,357$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.85	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes	1c	2,004$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	1,890$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4b…525fbacked Yes	19c	1,867$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.35	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	16c	1,775$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.55	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	7c	1,703$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.24	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	3c	1,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	1,633$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bd…c997backed Yes	2c	1,620$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	9c	1,559$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.28	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	12c	1,519$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.82	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	20c	1,481$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	1,379$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.34	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	11c	1,306$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.78	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes	15c	1,300$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.4	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	10c	1,233$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…47fabacked Yes	18c	1,224$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.24	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	20c	1,204$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.59	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	6c	1,092$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.35	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes	12c	1,025$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	16c	1,015$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.7	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	986.77$789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.35	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	976.68$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.67	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa96…5a05backed Yes	20c	972.53$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	14c	937.08$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.79	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e74…13ebbacked Yes	9c	922.16$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.23	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes	6c	900$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.28	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	14c	835.5$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.47	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc20b…9881backed Yes	22c	802.47$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.29	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b98…9313backed Yes	10c	800$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.49	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	799.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	20c	798$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.21	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	80c	783.05$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.39	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5a…5bccbacked Yes	11c	731.53$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	725.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	14c	700.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	11c	700.1$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.14	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	20c	700$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes	12c	696$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.13	92	40.2%37 W · 55 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	12c	680.65$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.66	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcde6…040fbacked Yes	4c	632$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.22	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	11c	628.09$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.65	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	18c	600.73$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.18	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	10c	600.53$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbba…e651backed Yes	3c	599.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed Yes	3c	587.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	12c	579.86$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.75	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	5c	570$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes	12c	568.34$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.26	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec07…ca80backed Yes	18c	554.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	20c	550$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	10c	505.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No	76c	500$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd0…aa04backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fc…c478backed Yes	15c	499.98$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ac…c4a8backed Yes	18c	490.94$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.71	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d8…5f19backed Yes	20c	488$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	16c	477.76$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.56	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes	21c	466.69$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.07	64	21.9%14 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	9c	451.87$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.93	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0093…be88backed Yes	22c	449.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+17%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	410.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3811…106fbacked Yes	20c	409.89$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event