Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f418a7975523b17adfe9d2c25772e940b7f28e01e0bb474a431607ca8b63805

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $732,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $316,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,227 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	112,881$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.97	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	30,057$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.96	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	0c	21,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	14,276$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	14,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	13,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	10,791$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.9	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,598$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	9,687$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.15	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	0c	9,224$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	8,377$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.13	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	0c	8,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	8,100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2d…2b55backed Yes	0c	8,042$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	0c	7,436$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.43	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	0c	7,429$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	7,389$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,713$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ec…7ef0backed Yes	0c	6,608$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	0c	6,451$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes	0c	6,342$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	0c	6,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	5,791$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	5,150$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.97	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	0c	4,952$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	4,420$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	4,372$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,303$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	0c	4,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	0c	4,069$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	3,900$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes	1c	3,835$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	0c	3,232$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	3,230$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	3,213$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	3,155$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	3,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,811$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	2,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	2,499$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	1c	2,338$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	2,315$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	1c	2,307$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	1c	2,302$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	2,258$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	2,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,063$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,057$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,754$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,601$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,463$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be6…a207backed Yes	1c	1,319$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	1c	1,132$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	3c	886.54$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.54	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128e…9dd3backed Yes	2c	589$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f1…6a20backed Yes	3c	372.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event