Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $755,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $433,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,852 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	5c	28,000$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.49	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	26,231$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.91	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	28c	20,711$5,771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,770.66	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	15c	16,872$2,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,576.34	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	27c	15,779$4,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,213.58	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	13,832$1,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,566.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	13,613$1,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312.37	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	69c	9,446$6,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,941.77	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	6c	9,269$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.53	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	8,277$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.31	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	8,271$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.99	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	7,532$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.11	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	18c	7,364$1,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,288.76	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	24c	7,361$1,790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,790.43	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b6…4641backed Yes	11c	7,316$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	17c	6,988$1,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,185.78	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	6,406$928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	14c	6,387$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.37	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	5c	6,260$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.75	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	6c	6,000$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.22	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,444$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	12c	5,179$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.38	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	29c	5,063$1,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,446.45	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	5c	5,047$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.18	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	37c	4,914$1,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,802.98	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	9c	4,614$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.36	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	11c	4,347$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.58	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	11c	4,312$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.55	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	6c	4,108$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.26	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	8c	3,975$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.08	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	3,938$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.93	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	79c	3,887$3,082 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$804.95	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	19c	3,807$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.69	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	20c	3,784$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.73	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	35c	3,663$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,270	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	76c	3,456$2,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$817.43	210	63.3%133 W · 77 L	+22.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	4c	3,338$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.02	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	16c	3,219$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.4	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	20c	3,210$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.27	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	18c	3,120$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.9	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	6c	2,950$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.04	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,907$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.04	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes	4c	2,832$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.06	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	+24%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	6c	2,700$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.51	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No	79c	2,690$2,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.48	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,607$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	14c	2,503$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.01	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	69c	2,497$1,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.37	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,398$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.31	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	33c	2,351$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.13	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes	4c	2,337$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	6c	2,325$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.68	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	16c	2,290$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.09	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes	3c	2,258$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	113	25.7%29 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	65c	2,252$1,471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.67	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	2,200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.12	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	6c	2,200$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.19	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	20c	2,147$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.42	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes	5c	2,139$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	4c	2,106$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	23c	2,002$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.03	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	23c	2,002$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.18	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	17c	2,000$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	11c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	2,000$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79a8…1befbacked Yes	27c	2,000$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+124.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	11c	2,000$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.7	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b4…7df3backed Yes	15c	1,966$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.63	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+100.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	9c	1,961$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.86	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	38c	1,917$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.49	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	15c	1,909$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.9	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	1,868$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	6c	1,741$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.08	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	13c	1,740$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.85	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	25c	1,609$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.32	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	20c	1,604$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.34	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	24c	1,545$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.85	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc604…6dbabacked Yes	21c	1,534$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e40…47a4backed Yes	20c	1,502$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.19per pick	28cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	15c	1,412$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.7	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	5c	1,362$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.8	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	1,357$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	19c	1,350$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.73	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	36c	1,347$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.56	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,346$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.17	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No	78c	1,344$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.73	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	70c	1,328$931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.99	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a36…e42bbacked Yes	11c	1,302$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	80c	1,300$1,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.81	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,299$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.47	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	25c	1,275$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.37	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,275$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	24c	1,220$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.05	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	16c	1,206$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.78	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	33c	1,204$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.19	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…9f6abacked No	79c	1,189$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.09	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	27c	1,185$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.26	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d2…8dacbacked Yes	29c	1,174$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.57	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…80abbacked Yes	13c	1,160$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.09	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event