Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb6824612bcde2b81f7ba1d98ff6fdeda35c20abf9473aba6fa18ee5f3a27bd

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $597,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $266,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $597,218 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	2c	64,702$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.62	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	22,936$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.96	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	19,216$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a6…5023backed Yes	0c	16,780$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	14,577$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.73	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	13,161$1,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,353.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	10,045$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75fe…ea54backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5276…800dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	4c	10,000$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.01	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes	1c	9,501$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	9,192$1,927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,927.34	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	19c	8,644$1,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,638.37	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	7,123$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.22	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	17c	6,020$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.65	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	20c	6,000$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.62	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	0c	5,749$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	5,216$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.52	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	21c	5,028$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.7	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	14c	4,365$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Yes	0c	4,322$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,253$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	7c	4,124$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.04	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	13c	4,031$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.57	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	3,546$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	8c	3,500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes	9c	3,461$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.1	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	21c	3,446$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.76	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	11c	3,428$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.33	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	11c	3,375$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.8	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	1c	3,249$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	0c	3,142$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No	78c	3,111$2,442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.84	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	3,100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	0c	2,811$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,650$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,515$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	20c	2,504$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.8	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	21c	2,449$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.77	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	9c	2,422$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.96	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8634…3912backed Yes	12c	2,396$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.79	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	17c	2,338$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.83	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes	7c	2,170$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	13c	2,132$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.7	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	21c	2,015$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.66	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	9c	2,010$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.9	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	2,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.1	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	20c	1,922$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.37	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	1,917$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.69	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	1,875$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.82	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	8c	1,824$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.12	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	2c	1,745$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,712$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.93	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes	1c	1,709$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,676$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf76…c5f8backed Yes	12c	1,656$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes	5c	1,620$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.28	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	14c	1,433$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.03	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…fd3fbacked No	75c	1,400$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	77cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d32…76e1backed Yes	25c	1,316$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.9	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	19c	1,303$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.5	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	10c	1,300$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	8c	1,286$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.1	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,274$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	13c	1,250$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.54	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	21c	1,200$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	1,156$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.51	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes	1c	1,146$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	78c	1,146$898 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.24	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	17c	1,044$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…fe75backed Yes	2c	1,031$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	1c	1,015$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…fe98backed Yes	4c	1,015$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.95	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3e…74d0backed Yes	25c	994.88$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes	19c	969.47$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.28	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes	20c	934$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.56	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	18c	913.14$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.03	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	10c	902.56$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed No	79c	892.96$708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.64	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	53cpaid	+66%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	865.4$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.08	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2923…77d5backed Yes	23c	849.99$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	13c	823.89$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.95	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	23c	800$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No	78c	799.99$628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172	63	81%51 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	75cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7461…3515backed Yes	13c	795.79$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-38%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	17c	773.81$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No	75c	772.56$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.14	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	21c	721.97$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.9	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	11c	712.37$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.11	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…5f19backed Yes	21c	699.99$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	30cpaid	-67%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	23c	699.99$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	699.99$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	18c	699.98$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.36	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a1…fa1abacked Yes	10c	696.79$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.63	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+193.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	18c	656.42$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.98	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event