Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61929dda3307755fb9db66fd43c99a74ca200780f725e07f7b9ab83d55035175

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $481,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	56,394$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.98	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	48,931$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.55	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…0dfebacked Yes	0c	16,401$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	18	0%0 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	12,694$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	11,231$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.44	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	11,069$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.49	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed Yes	0c	11,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb15e…865fbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,063$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.21	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3fc…a1d9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	0%0 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	9,281$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	1c	8,895$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.32	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	8,155$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	7,796$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	1c	7,200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.79	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,070$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdcf…144fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,890$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	1c	3,674$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	1c	3,079$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	0c	3,013$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	0c	2,669$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	1c	2,413$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23f…33b0backed Yes	1c	2,055$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,987$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	1c	1,873$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,849$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,845$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,574$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes	2c	1,498$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.48	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9480…e243backed Yes	3c	1,495$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	1c	1,301$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	2c	1,300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367e…3cadbacked Yes	1c	1,010$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-30%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186f…8e85backed Yes	1c	840$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	4c	645.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event