TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$727,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$408,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0224…292abacked Yes0c65,097$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.166613.6%9 W · 57 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c37,157$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.721,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes3c30,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8203134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c27,484$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.031,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes7c18,909$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.6314427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes0c18,404$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes22c16,750$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.9945715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3879…d8c3backed Yes0c14,797$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c13,916$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7912528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes0c10,344$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…9017backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes1c9,891$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8882711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes16c9,599$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53611430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes14c9,469$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.6363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86e…8833backed Yes0c8,614$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes18c7,631$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.8153522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c7,314$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.142,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c6,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2232615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes24c6,500$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.7114413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8518…0c8ebacked Yes0c6,349$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+164.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes6c6,140$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.3925413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes9c5,939$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6333422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes18c5,738$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.317631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c5,002$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.021,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes9c4,899$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7130310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No78c4,777$3,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.1213815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c4,544$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes0c3,806$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.135516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes14c3,574$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.5550828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,523$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes21c3,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7358214.6%12 W · 70 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes10c3,499$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.423212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6288…7c0abacked Yes1c3,439$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed No75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes8c2,870$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes11c2,830$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31628912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c2,710$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3358011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c2,542$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.096097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes0c2,404$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10200%0 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c2,355$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes1c2,296$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.446410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes5c2,268$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7615312.4%19 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes7c2,143$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes12c2,134$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5588610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes4c2,110$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes12c2,100$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7811729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes6c2,100$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13350913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes24c2,048$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.195719.3%11 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+82.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes15c2,024$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes12c1,969$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5111931.1%37 W · 82 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes13c1,938$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2332917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes9c1,929$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.021148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,779$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.034916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes11c1,769$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20117824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,721$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.556915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fa…1faebacked Yes23c1,646$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.063441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes13c1,626$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8857621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes4c1,589$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.999416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes19c1,524$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5618726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes24c1,448$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes12c1,372$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.863713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes22c1,347$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2977518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes4c1,250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.91,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes21c1,158$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.596921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No79c1,146$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.624965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes7c1,123$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.886930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes10c1,044$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes21c1,021$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.818224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes23c1,014$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305115.7%8 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202532%8 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a3f6backed Yes7c987.41$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.53130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ec…e25abacked Yes8c940.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.222321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes19c924.76$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2110441.3%43 W · 61 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes4c880$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No77c863.52$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.224873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes15c847.87$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.934216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+149.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb1…c601backed Yes19c846.58$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1643818.4%7 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc604…6dbabacked Yes16c812.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes17c810$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.65612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes14c800$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes5c799.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.972142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes16c762.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37cc…ae68backed Yes5c756.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes17c746$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.829743.3%42 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes22c724.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606624.2%16 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes2c722.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137716.9%13 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes21c710.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No76c700$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1686381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes24c700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes23c699.76$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5532016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes19c657.55$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.366015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes18c653.72$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1182785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes18c649.76$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3610617%18 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes22c632.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9210820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes4c626.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.846137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes14c619.52$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5328025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes8c601.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2840719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.