Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b6c8a5efe9a569cb18a31618a5e89008bde84c14a099874f81890cbb8fd13c8

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,053,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $618,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053,937 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	62,673$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.44	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	23c	52,471$12,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,322.94	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	16c	44,239$7,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,285.27	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	30,000$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.13	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	24,557$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	5c	18,899$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.36	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	3c	16,093$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.37	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	14,174$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	13,553$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.48	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	1c	11,108$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	10,675$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.87	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	10,113$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	10,106$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.64	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	9,450$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.33	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	9c	9,112$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.3	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	9,000$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.49	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	51c	8,272$4,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,182.23	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	0c	7,357$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	7,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.3	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	46c	7,079$3,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,230.25	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	19c	6,715$1,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,286.88	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	10c	6,423$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.09	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	6,378$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.04	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	10c	5,703$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.85	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	5,349$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.92	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	5,347$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.21	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	12c	5,184$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.18	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	5,174$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	4,795$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.7	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	16c	4,685$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.16	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,621$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	74c	4,609$3,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,197.93	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	25c	4,500$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	17c	4,427$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$774.06	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	4,226$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.7	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	4,188$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.13	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	12c	4,127$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.1	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	36c	4,098$1,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,462.86	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	20c	4,091$838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.84	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	12c	3,766$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.67	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	8c	3,748$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.46	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	7c	3,722$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	5c	3,604$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.75	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	15c	3,536$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	3,395$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.12	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	3,243$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.73	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	3,200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.38	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	2c	3,179$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.39	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	3c	2,949$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.53	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,805$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5619…9446backed Yes	4c	2,771$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.66	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	2c	2,704$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	20c	2,699$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	13c	2,681$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.13	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	22c	2,650$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.99	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	8c	2,500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.92	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	5c	2,475$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.95	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	2,320$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	4c	2,118$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.56	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	11c	2,111$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.74	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	2c	2,108$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No	73c	2,103$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.25	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,087$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.13	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	2c	2,084$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.87	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	10c	2,064$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.1	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	2,024$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.66	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	15c	2,019$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.08	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	3c	2,005$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.02	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.44	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	21c	1,963$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.82	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	6c	1,938$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.88	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	12c	1,919$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.25	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	36c	1,877$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.69	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8641…e3acbacked Yes	48c	1,839$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.74	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	9c	1,833$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.91	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes	40c	1,817$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	33c	1,800$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.89	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	1,759$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.88	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes	32c	1,753$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.11	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cdd…dacebacked Yes	41c	1,753$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.4	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked Yes	6c	1,708$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes	12c	1,679$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.99	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	4c	1,667$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.72	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes	1c	1,666$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+5.4wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,622$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.06	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d5…559ebacked Yes	15c	1,596$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.26	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	3c	1,551$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	1,483$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.28	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes	41c	1,481$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	7c	1,467$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes	39c	1,460$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.96	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed Yes	9c	1,443$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.4	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	1c	1,434$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	39c	1,400$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.4	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a8…1befbacked Yes	47c	1,397$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.75	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+124.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	8c	1,392$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.24	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	4c	1,374$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.05	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadc…4285backed Yes	15c	1,360$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.27	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event