Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da276fddfdef9e4d3d8d46457eb5eb50b2577737b285470f2fd623adfd5db20

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $409,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $198,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,717 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	72,379$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$941.31	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bd…c997backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	17,694$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.86	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	2c	12,493$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.64	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	12,308$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.98	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3042…130cbacked Yes	2c	11,140$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	9,859$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.75	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	9,498$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.29	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	7,264$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.54	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	7,204$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	2c	7,161$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.02	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	0c	5,295$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	4c	5,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.74	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	2c	4,931$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.32	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d28…4453backed Yes	1c	4,226$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,033$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	3,074$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.91	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a6…e06abacked Yes	3c	3,010$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	2,749$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.68	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	2c	2,735$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	3c	2,464$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.61	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	1c	2,287$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.02	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	5c	2,215$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.84	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	4c	2,116$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	2c	1,860$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,815$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,725$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,563$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,443$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.93	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,443$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	1,396$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	1,376$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	1,339$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.65	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,316$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.59	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	1c	1,222$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	1,118$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes	3c	1,029$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	2c	1,012$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,008$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	2c	946.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	2c	796.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd7…68e9backed Yes	10c	654.91$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde6…040fbacked Yes	3c	480$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes	5c	450.64$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	200	25%50 W · 150 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	358.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…47fabacked Yes	3c	350.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9290…1257backed Yes	9c	339.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	4c	331.38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	330.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event