TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,060,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,060,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes1c97,784$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.932259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c61,110$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2213815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501785.6%10 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c43,272$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2962713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes0c35,600$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.124617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes2c31,170$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.066613.6%9 W · 57 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c30,704$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.816097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c28,129$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.741,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes2c20,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c18,503$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6835024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c18,471$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4151410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c16,456$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.221,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes0c13,332$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes0c13,278$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+1,823.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c12,999$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c12,557$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.152,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes1c9,544$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5225413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes1c9,200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.330310.9%33 W · 270 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c7,943$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.364568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes1c7,245$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5225012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c6,777$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.031,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes3c6,720$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes1c6,049$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.991177.7%9 W · 108 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes2c5,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes2c5,145$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.689315.1%14 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes1c5,109$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8932613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes0c5,076$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick0cpaid+13,285.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes1c4,952$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.840719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes1c4,921$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2550828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes1c4,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305411.1%6 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes1c4,714$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.28837.2%6 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed Yes0c4,298$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c4,263$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.651,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes1c3,797$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8522926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,588$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.641,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c3,515$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0125311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes1c3,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201258.8%11 W · 114 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c3,277$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.635598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes0c3,167$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes1c3,113$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.521614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes2c3,080$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.433423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes1c3,016$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.634822.9%11 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes2c3,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.485718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes3c3,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8417612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c2,982$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3bba…7774backed Yes0c2,715$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2890%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5273…16debacked Yes2c2,601$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes1c2,562$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731539.8%15 W · 138 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c2,506$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.595516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes1c2,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4523212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd26e…c249backed Yes1c2,476$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ec…b921backed Yes1c2,443$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes1c2,400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.182711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c2,385$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,367$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.562,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes1c2,311$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.544926.5%13 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes2c2,284$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes1c2,252$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5217917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes2c2,226$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes1c2,177$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.647121.1%15 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c2,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2632615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,068$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.386915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes1c2,020$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5619…9446backed Yes1c2,018$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.123525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes1c1,998$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181157.8%9 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes1c1,980$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2365311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c1,960$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3178111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes2c1,949$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4213911.5%16 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes1c1,937$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked Yes2c1,923$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.268436.9%31 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes1c1,917$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207710.4%8 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes1c1,884$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.773844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,851$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.444916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes1c1,832$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3213323.3%31 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes3c1,579$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,430$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes1c1,414$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9711320.4%23 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes3c1,306$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2d…2b55backed Yes2c1,288$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,215$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.585535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de8…1087backed Yes3c1,136$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes2c1,117$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6213315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes2c1,066$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0828025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes1c1,052$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.415628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Yes1c1,051$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes1c1,013$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.932917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes2c1,003$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7310216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes1c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa757…2438backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes1c988.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8413215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes1c916.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7212421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes3c869.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4511416.7%19 W · 95 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes2c835.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4615312.4%19 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes2c712$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.814314%20 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes2c702.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.