TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$518,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,538 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c140,465$140 inLost-$140.4613815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes1c53,904$451 inLost-$451.1963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes3c30,757$774 inLost-$773.9838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c27,078$41 inLost-$41.0579811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c23,000$23 inLost-$231,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c14,920$83 inLost-$83.2932615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes0c14,805$15 inLost-$14.812259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes0c11,701$39 inLost-$39.3524114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed Yes0c11,000$12 inLost-$125448.1%26 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes0c8,369$16 inLost-$16.376410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c6,036$40 inLost-$40.2132716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,051$17 inLost-$17.42,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes1c2,381$31 inLost-$316216.1%10 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe875…8492backed Yes2c1,489$25 inLost-$252010%2 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,074$14 inLost-$14.091824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost-$1323212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9480…e243backed Yes2c800$19 inLost-$18.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c516.07$16 inLost-$15.6812114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x367e…3cadbacked Yes2c501.12$11 inLost-$10.931822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes5c267.82$14 inLost-$14.445612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes44c60$27 inLost-$26.5221732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…1840backed No73c50$37 inWon+$13.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b3…831bbacked Yes38c36.8$14 inLost-$13.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.