Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5febcaa014285f5ac57d953f859a2f19ca1e44263b97b2219b9e892e7765018e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,294,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $898,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,294,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	7c	96,772$7,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,142.34	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	95,478$2,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,023.99	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	73,331$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.83	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	64,920$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	50,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.01	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	21,904$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.81	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	20,315$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.03	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	2c	18,990$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.58	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	1c	18,985$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.59	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	17,895$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.61	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	16,210$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.71	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	15,283$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.65	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	12,022$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.5	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	11,115$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.75	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	5c	9,560$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.05	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	8,912$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,633$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	5c	8,562$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.73	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	1c	7,651$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.73	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	1c	7,591$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.07	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34f4…16bdbacked Yes	3c	7,044$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	6,756$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.58	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	3c	6,488$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.06	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	3c	6,187$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.93	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	7c	6,000$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.1	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	5,921$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.84	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	5,856$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.02	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	5,769$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.58	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	4c	5,641$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.5	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	5c	5,639$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	5,530$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.39	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	2c	5,356$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.4	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	3c	5,262$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.77	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	5,100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.1	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	0c	4,856$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	4,305$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.27	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	6c	4,075$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.73	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7452…0a15backed Yes	1c	4,058$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	3,766$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	4c	3,764$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.54	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	5c	3,630$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.89	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	8c	3,600$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.8	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	3,582$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	4c	3,187$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	3,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	10c	2,880$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.61	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	19c	2,754$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.81	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	7c	2,691$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.63	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	1c	2,688$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,584$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	8c	2,516$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.38	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	2,461$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.96	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	3c	2,259$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.9	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	2,176$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	3c	2,097$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	2,084$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.92	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	2,066$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,065$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	5c	2,030$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.48	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	19c	2,022$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.57	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	4c	2,012$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.01	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	3c	2,009$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.17	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,000$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Yes	1c	1,999$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	3c	1,995$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.83	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	2c	1,965$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.29	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	2c	1,963$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45be…ab8abacked Yes	4c	1,904$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.26	199	30.2%60 W · 139 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef4…615dbacked Yes	1c	1,835$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	4c	1,737$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.21	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,730$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.41	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	3c	1,710$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.07	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	1c	1,700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked Yes	3c	1,635$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	1c	1,629$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	2c	1,622$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.49	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,531$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	2c	1,526$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,522$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,454$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.66	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,446$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	3c	1,400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	6c	1,375$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	8c	1,366$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.37	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes	4c	1,316$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.97	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	4c	1,316$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	10c	1,290$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	1,229$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	4c	1,200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	1c	1,191$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	2c	1,169$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,150$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36ec…5a0dbacked Yes	4c	1,107$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	140	31.4%44 W · 96 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes	3c	1,100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	128	28.1%36 W · 92 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes	3c	1,100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	182	18.7%34 W · 148 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	3c	1,100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	9c	1,046$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.81	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event