TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xaa96…5a05

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
23
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Stocks, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 53 out of 100; worst Valorant at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchagabacked Roman Andres Burruchaga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+314.7%+$646.32
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherifbacked Mayar Sherif · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$2,960
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejobacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,479.99
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Tallon Griekspoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,160
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Adam Walton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+242.5%+$707.99
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurribacked Andrea Guerrieri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$853Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$852.77
Istanbul: Hynek Barton vs David Jorda Sanchisbacked Hynek Barton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navonebacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,260
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabellibacked Aleksandar Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$798
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$210.6
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurelbacked Dalibor Svrcina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$952Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$952
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Libacked Ann Li · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,519Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,580.97
Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,241Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,240.57
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$908.12
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$786Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$786.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+182.2%+$697.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,997Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$983.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,369.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.