TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,088,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,122,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,088,852 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,047 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf17a…7b1fbacked No41c105,916$43,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,469.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes60c99,501$59,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,952.363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes48c55,011$26,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,743.523246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes61c53,409$32,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,850.116835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cf…f374backed No22c42,749$9,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,344.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked No33c41,452$13,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,667.312321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430f…5947backed No54c40,000$21,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,599.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0da…1f80backed No58c36,785$21,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,422.79520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes63c24,263$15,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,080.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f75…af7ebacked Yes64c22,140$14,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,039.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes45c22,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,100540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f0…c18bbacked No41c20,399$8,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,464.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes68c20,000$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4001833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes60c18,997$11,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,537.9235123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdde…76b8backed Yes60c18,500$11,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,396.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb50c…215bbacked Yes56c17,993$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,993.32825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Yes51c17,920$9,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,829.921533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes48c17,437$8,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,995.7414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5b…c6c1backed Yes40c14,369$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,631.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes59c12,480$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,130.2628113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes58c11,215$6,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,700.9212259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No47c10,584$4,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,990.5337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b0…372fbacked No36c9,624$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes52c9,369$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,497.021010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No37c8,931$3,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.464139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No57c8,850$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.471533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked No36c8,577$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes60c8,291$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292.6511720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…6767backed Yes43c8,024$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.171323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No41c8,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed No62c7,998$4,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,97710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3250…108dbacked Yes64c7,810$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.25850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed No38c7,717$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9501225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No45c7,700$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.671457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…ec07backed Yes38c7,137$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,397.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd89…353bbacked No51c7,094$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x404a…575dbacked Yes64c6,935$4,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,467.731478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3d…17a7backed Yes44c6,584$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,718.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes49c6,484$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.158713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9095…96f7backed No47c6,388$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.292972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+39.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c8d…299cbacked No58c6,275$3,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.144047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Yes80c6,188$4,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.573100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes48c6,152$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.3914213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Yes39c6,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.974010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes56c5,947$3,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,641.347156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No20c5,803$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.931333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9ca…b5bfbacked No1c5,774$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed No46c5,698$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.174330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb2…25b9backed No53c5,607$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.81837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c7…e53fbacked Yes46c5,394$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,901.151936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a2…791cbacked No55c5,322$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ad…f13ebacked No43c5,114$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.43862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa701…47cdbacked No55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e1…65c8backed Yes46c5,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes69c4,982$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.62619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5106…2bacbacked No49c4,899$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.561050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Yes54c4,644$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.041040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No55c4,545$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3de…ee7fbacked Yes42c4,524$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes48c4,500$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3572040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fd0…0022backed No21c4,473$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Yes69c4,411$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.551040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes56c4,360$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes66c4,198$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.713946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No60c4,191$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No40c4,048$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.442718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c4,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5407327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57a…08f8backed No57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.951275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes65c4,000$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.973925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x838a…add1backed No40c3,921$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed No43c3,843$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes57c3,827$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…50aebacked No42c3,794$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5f…3f0bbacked Yes43c3,777$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.43520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x446d…1995backed Yes48c3,716$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes46c3,623$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.38619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No44c3,309$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.4313038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed Yes53c3,248$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No39c3,230$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.2358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x665c…e2b9backed Yes56c3,132$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.91366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No12c3,009$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.547112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes47c3,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-80.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b03…93fbbacked Yes35c2,860$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+104%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63e0…bfd9backed No43c2,845$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a99…c413backed No55c2,781$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5202050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0836…e39fbacked No42c2,698$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked Yes56c2,688$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.52070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacca…08b1backed Yes49c2,649$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.082850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No12c2,631$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.67140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes48c2,618$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.471435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…7a4dbacked Yes38c2,569$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed No42c2,441$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No24c2,376$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.862020%4 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0644…2f35backed No55c2,356$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a82…491bbacked No24c2,302$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No13c2,301$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…639ebacked Yes58c2,270$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.912744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.