Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfda04cc145c9bd504e12be79d04cd7550d07bf2c13df078f9d917a2785551e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 63,825$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.52 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9e…27b9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,797$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 1c | 18,518$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fef…442abacked Yes | 1c | 10,155$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,564$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…f1f6backed Yes | 1c | 8,473$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 0c | 6,527$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…6e71backed Yes | 0c | 6,493$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…202bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…3028backed Yes | 1c | 4,284$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…cf1cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,271$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,148$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 1c | 3,459$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0b39backed Yes | 6c | 3,239$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda11…22b0backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 2,542$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…e122backed Yes | 1c | 1,595$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,516$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 1c | 1,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…394dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…ad6fbacked Yes | 8c | 410.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 8c | 177.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b15…2469backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.